Predicted landing and completed landing differ
The 2026 ITF rules treat a live ball touching the player or clothing differently from a ball that has already landed out. Catching an apparently long shot before it bounces does not establish the predicted out result.
A lob is travelling far beyond the baseline. The receiver catches it in the air and points outside. That action prevents the actual bounce on which the receiver’s out assumption depended. The ball was still live when caught.
Change only the timing: let it bounce beyond the relevant boundary first. The observation now establishes a completed out bounce, rather than a forecast of where an airborne ball would land. The same apparent trajectory does not make the two sequences equivalent.
Watch the first terminating event
Replay the live contact and ground contact in order. A ball touching the shirt before landing needs a different explanation from a ball rolling into the player after already being out. This temporal distinction is more useful than debating how obvious the projected flight looked. The example concerns the live-ball rule, not advice to endanger anyone in trying to avoid a ball.
Questions answered
Does being certain a live ball would land out authorise catching it?
No.
What separates the two examples?
Whether the out bounce happened before the player’s contact.
Sources & further reading
Official references for the subjects discussed. Service terms and device software can change.